Leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union Party Friedrich Merz is set to become the next chancellor for Germany, but remarks from President Donald Trump may have made the U.S.-German transatlantic relations uneasy.
In the 2025 Bundestag election, the preliminary results show the Christian Democratic Union Party (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), occupied 28.6% of votes.
Current chancellor of Germany and leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) Olaf Scholz fell behind with 16.41% of the vote after his three-party coalition government collapsed in early November after he fired his finance minister over an economic dispute.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) took the political stage, totaling 20.8% of votes and is the strongest in popularity of a far-right party in Germany since World War II. The AfD is known as an extremist, anti-immigrant party whose aim is to “eliminate the free democratic basic order.”
On Feb. 12, Trump announced direct communication with Russia to end the Ukraine-Russian war. Just six days later, he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “comedian” who had “done a terrible job.”
In a televised program Feb. 23, Merz said his main priority will be to strengthen Europe so it can achieve independence from the U.S. after the president’s statements made him feel like the Trump Administration is “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
But with Germany supporting Ukraine with weapons combined with Trump’s comments, Merz suggested there may be a need to establish an independent European defense structure in regard to NATO.
According to a March 1 article by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, since Trump’s return to the White House, Europeans are trying to demonstrate they are willing to do more in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. The article also states the U.S. is pressuring the NATO ally to cede territory and pushing Ukraine to accept economic exploitation.
Assistant Professor for the UTRGV Department of Political Science Jokubas Salyga said there are three points that marked a major shift from Germany’s longheld pro-American position in foreign policy.
According to Salyga, the first point is Merz’s advocating for nuclear cooperation between Germany, France and Britain since he believes the U.S. can no longer be relied upon in the case of a potential nuclear attack on Europe. Salyga added this suggests Germany may be ready to decouple from the U.S. in the area of defense.
Salyga’s second point is Merz’s calling for an independent European defense alliance, citing the American indifference feeling. Germany has been part of NATO for almost 70 years, but with the NATO summit coming up in July, Merz wondered if NATO would remain unchanged or if Europe would need to act first and establish its own alternative.
His last point is Merz comparing the Trump Administration to President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s regime, criticising U.S. interference in Germany’s elections.
“So, Merz pointed to Elon Musk, a staunch ally of Donald Trump, obviously, who endorsed this far-right party alternative for Germany during the election campaign,” Salyga said. “And, Friedrich Merz called this kind of influence just as drastic and just as outrageous as that of Russia. So, he stressed the need for European unity under the pressure from both sides, from Moscow, but also from Washington.”
According to the Danish Institute for International Studies, since NATO’s 2014 Wales summit, defense spending has increased, with several countries now meeting the 2% GDP target.
However, Germany, NATO’s second-largest economy, has yet to reach this goal. Tensions between the U.S. and Germany escalated under Trump in his first term, who criticized Germany for underfunding defense.
In response, the Trump Administration announced in July 2020 the withdrawal of 11,900 U.S. troops from Germany, relocating some to Poland while others moved back to the U.S. or elsewhere in Europe.
Professor for the UTRGV Department of Political Science Nicholas Kiersey said as long as America is willing to provide the nuclear umbrella and maintain divisions in Europe, then the Europeans never really had to pay for their own security.
“Now, from Donald Trump’s point of view, and from the point of view of JD Vance and the rest of the Trump Administration, this meant that the Europeans could have, not just security on the cheap, right, but the money and the funds that they would otherwise spend on security, they could divert to other things,” Kiersey said. “So, this is why, you know, a lot of Europeans will go, like, ‘Well, the Europeans are kind of socialists, you know, they have more providential state, they have better welfare.’ … And the Americans will often say, ‘That’s because we pay for their security, right. They don’t have to have the high taxes.’”
In January, Musk made a surprise virtual appearance at an AfD campaign rally stating the party is the “best hope for Germany.” But, more U.S. influence continued in German politics when Vance gave a speech during the Munich Security Conference Feb. 14, accusing Europe of suppressing free speech and censorship, claiming Europe was facing a “threat from within” and not from Russia or China.
Lecturer II for the UTRGV Department of Political Science Hafthor Erlingsson said American political figure endorsements influence European politics in two ways.
“You know, for one, of course, it does give the AfD a lot of publicity,” Erlingsson said. “And certainly there will be people in Germany that will be more likely to vote for the AfD because of that. But at the same time, I think it also might kind of bring people closer to the center. And I think it did, you know, shock many how involved people like Elon Musk became in domestic German politics. And also, I think it shocked many that the speech that JD Vance made in Germany kind of about European politics and about excluding the far-right parties.”
Trump posted to Truth Social, “much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no-common-sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration,” adding “this is a great day for Germany,” commending Merz’s victory.
According to Salyga, Germany’s economic model was based upon exports to China and cheap imports of energy from Russia. When a German-designed trade agreement facilitating exports to China was shelved by the U.S., combined with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the AfD surged politically by capitalizing on alienation and dissatisfaction.
“The unavailability of cheap energy imports from Russia and also the closing of export markets to China, those two shocks work together to really sort of raise energy costs in Germany,” he said. “And, that became a huge problem because it resulted in increasing inflation rates, first of all, and those increasing inflation rates worked to undermine the legitimacy of the previous government, which was led by the Social Democrats by Olaf Scholz.”
Before taking office, Merz must form a coalition with another party because he did not win enough seats in parliament to form a majority. Yet, Germany’s main parties have reportedly refused to work with the AfD due to its firewall. Erlingsson said Merz is most likely to form a coalition government with the SPD.
“So, of course, the CDU faces the issue that they need about 108 more seats in the Bundestag to be able to form a majority,” he said. “So, they will have to try to work with the Social Democrats or the Green Party to do so, and some other parties. They’ve already come out and stated they will not form a government with the AfD.”
Salyga agreed the new chancellor will form a coalition with the SPD even though Merz spent the past two months criticizing the SPD for stagnating the economy and uncontrolled migration.
He added the CDU/CSU will focus on a pro-business economic agenda involving cutting taxes and slashing welfare and regulation. The SPD will seek to hold firm on social spending, including their plan to secure a minimum pension level.
“Another potential bone for contention is migration,” he said. “So, Merz, tried to really strong-arm the previous government into tightening border checks and restricting asylum in Germany by passing a motion together with [the] far-right AfD party. And this caused a lot of uproar in Germany. This was, sort of, something that went against that firewall.”
According to Salyga, the SPD cooperated with the AfD to put forward more strict ideas about migration. He added both parties may also clash over how to fund defense spending and infrastructure needs because they have to comply with the debt brake.
“So, in the German constitution, you can find this sort of a debt brake, which basically limits government borrowing,” Salyga said. “The Social Democrats say that they want to get rid of this debt brake in the constitution, and they’re quite fine with the reform of the constitution. The Christian Democrats, Merz’s own party, they’re quite ambivalent, and they are sort of open to discussions on the debt brake.”
However, Salyga said changing the constitution in Germany requires a two-thirds majority in parliament and the coalition lacks that majority.
“So, what is clear, I think, is that this will make it very, very hard to secure enough votes in the next parliament for the reform on Germany’s debt brake,” he said. “However, it seems pretty much guaranteed that the two parties will form this new coalition government, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. And, they will have to compromise inevitably. But, compromising in this instance, according to them, is probably much better than allowing the far-right AfD party to come into government.”
Merz said he hopes to form a coalition government by April 20.
This is Victoria Gonzalez for Vaquero Radio.
